Tuesday, April 13, 2010

In which I predict the 2012 Election

I'm no professional analyst, and predicting the future exactly is almost a manifestly impossible task, but I'm going to take a stab at it.
I'm predicting a 1996-style election with a spoiler, with the results coming up as follows:
Democrats, Barack Obama: 270 electoral votes
Republicans, Michael Huckabee, 140 electoral votes
Tea Party, Sarah Palin, 118 electoral votes

A prediction site, 270 to win helped me draw up a nice map of this.

A number of things would upset this model. The tea party cooperating with the Republicans, for instance, would combine their votes. A few other states flipping to their favor might tip the election to them. Most notably California, which is deeply divided between its large, mostly liberal cities and it's periphery, mostly conservative.
As for worldwide opinion, some Icelandic fans put up If the World could Vote for the 2008 election, gathering worldwide opinion on the subject. In 2008, the world was mostly pro-Obama, with a handful of McCain-favoring countries, primarily Macedonia, Albania, and the island nation of Nuie. The poll did not ask for reasons or arguments for their votes, so I can't be sure why people favored one over the other. The biggest change in 2012 is likely Israel now preferring the Republicans, having elected a conservative government themselves and being angry with Obama and his running mate Biden. As of this writing, they only cover 2008.

No comments:

Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...